Mission: Impossible

SO, the mathematical update. NBC News has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 171 delegates. That means if she wins a mere 100% of the remaining 86 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, she will be only be 85 delegates behind. Then, presuming (as we should) that she will get the Rules and Bylaws Committee to seat Florida and Michigan entirely in her favour (including zero delegates for Mr Obama in Michigan—the people’s voices must be heard after all, and none of those voices spoke his name), she nets 58 delegates, and is behind just 27.  Then assuming 260 or so undecided superdelegates (remember, Florida and Michigan will be fully seated, including their supers), only 55% have to be convinced to overrule the elected delegates.

Via Democracy in America

The Case for McCain

The New Yorker has the best piece of political journalism I’ve read this year. George Packer gives an interesting and insightful narrative following the currents of the conservative movement from Nixon to Bush, discussing how the dialogue of this presidential race reflects the shifts in the conservative base which has been a long time coming. The most important part of the piece comes at the very end, as Packer discusses how McCain has broken from the Modern Conservative base, how he is feared and shunned by much of the far right which has controlled the Republican Party, but how, in this political climate, that is the only chance for a Republican candidate this fall.

In its final year, the Bush Administration is seen by many conservatives (along with seventy per cent of Americans) to be a failure. Among true believers, there are two explanations of why this happened and what it portends. One is the purist version: Bush expanded the size of government and created huge deficits; allowed Republicans in Congress to fatten lobbyists and stuff budgets full of earmarks; tried to foist democracy on a Muslim country; failed to secure the border; and thus won the justified wrath of the American people. This account—shared by Pat Buchanan, the columnist George F. Will, and many Republicans in Congress—has the appeal of asking relatively little of conservatives. They need only to repent of their sins, rid themselves of the neoconservatives who had agitated for the Iraq invasion, and return to first principles….

It was a remarkably subdued performance. McCain doesn’t try to stir a crowd’s darker passions or its higher aspirations. He doesn’t present himself as a conservative leader; he is simply a leader. His favorite book, according to Salter, is “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” because it’s the story of a man who struggles nobly even though he knows the effort is doomed. McCain says to audiences, Here I am, a man in full, take me or leave me. This might be the only kind of Republican who could win in 2008.

Duh?

The BBC shockingly reports:

The researchers said although it was well known that use of alcohol and drugs was linked to risky sexual behaviour, this study showed many young people were “strategically” binge drinking or abusing drugs to improve their sex lives.

Why else would you go to a bar if not on the hopes that everyone else around you is going to get drunk enough to make some bad decisions?

I hate fat people, and people who are regularly in the vicinity of fat people.

Hebl found that volunteers rated job applicants more negatively when they had been seen seated next to an overweight person than when they were seen seated next to an average weight person. The volunteers had no idea that they were showing not only a prejudice against fat people but also a bias against people who were merely in proximity to overweight people. … Men and women seen in the company of beautiful partners are perceived as being more attractive than when they are seen in plainer company.

It seems that the DFF (designated fat friend) strategy is finally being discredited. The uglier, prettier, or gayer your friends are, the uglier, prettier, or gayer you seem. More here.

Hat Tip Overcoming Bias

Tiny Dancer

Some of my friends were discussing this last night. It’s summertime, so enjoy:

Humorous Vegetarians: I didn’t think they existed either.

From Here.

Now, when I say that vegetarians are normal people with normal food cravings, many omnivores will hoist a lamb shank in triumph and point out that you can hardly call yourself normal if the aroma of, say, sizzling bacon doesn’t fill you with deepest yearning. To which I reply: We’re not insane. We know meat tastes good; it’s why there’s a freezer case at your supermarket full of woefully inadequate meat substitutes. Believe me, if obtaining bacon didn’t require slaughtering a pig, I’d have a BLT in each hand right now with a bacon layer cake waiting in the fridge for dessert.

On that note, I also must admit that I ate a double-double with cheese and animal style fries to celebrate the end of finals.

Murder has never tasted so delicious.